By Stephen McNair, Norfolk for Europe
Last week’s Parliamentary decisions were seen by some as a success for remainers, and even enthusiasts are becoming bemused by the detail.
In reality, her plan offers a maze of options, all of which arrive at the no-deal Brexit they have already rejected, unless they vote for her deal on 12th.
If the Government loses the vote on 12th, Parliament will have to vote on 13th for or against no deal. If they vote no deal, that’s what we get on 29th.
If they vote against that, they will have to vote for or against requesting a “short extension” to Article 50. If they reject that, then they have voted for nothing, and the default is again no deal on 29th.
If they vote for a short extension (to avoid Parliamentary elections), it seems likely that the EU would refuse to reopen negotiations (we have already spent two years not agreeing about what we want), so a short extension is effectively a vote for a no deal Brexit, simply with a little more time to prepare.
If the EU say they will only accept a longer extension, to allow for more substantial negotiation – say to allow the future relationship to be rolled into an agreement, or to hold a referendum or election – then we have to hold Parliamentary elections. If we do not, then we again have no deal, since we cannot legally remain members without representation in the Parliament.
If we continue to squabble about this, eventually it is too late to organise the Parliamentary elections, and once again we get the no deal exit, which Parliament has already voted against.
Are we confident that all MP’s understand this?
Originally posted in the Norfolk for Europe closed Facebook group. Reproduced with permission.