While an Article 50 extension might have been a “given” only a few months ago, I fear there’s now a growing unease and “trust gap” building in EU circles that the UK’s increasingly volatile and divided Parliament will ever have the capacity to put together all the necessary and complex legislative elements for a fair and balanced new plebiscite.
As such, any extension (which requires a unanimous EU-27 approval) is by no means a “shoo-in” with countries like France and others unlikely to agree without some gilt-edge assurances that the political shenanigans will be abandoned in favour of a Parliament (and leadership!) genuinely acting in the National interest – if Macron somehow manages to come through his domestic travails, the last thing he will want in returning to his “EU agenda” is a recalcitrant and unstable UK!
But, if we do somewhat get to a 2nd vote, I believe a good starting point for the remain campaign would be a recognition that those who voted to leave the EU did so for perfectly sound reasons and feelings as they saw it.
To be successful, I therefore think the remain campaign must move out of its “safe spaces” (from where its messages inevitably revert to type), think harder and disagree more effectively and constructively when engaging.
Selling the benefits of EU membership may seem self-evident to many remainers but, counter-intuitively, this should be the very reason why the campaign will have to seriously raise it’s game in a more inclusive fashion.
At the same time, it must confront the inevitable threats of betrayal with the argument that many of the fundamental problems facing the country (of which there are many) have little to do with the EU but are the result of neglect and insouciance by successive governments.
As if it wasn’t already clear enough, Brexit is also sucking the life and scarce resources out of our body politic and the wider public realm – huge scope here in the campaign to highlight the fact that this will only get significantly worse in the next “each MS for itself phase” with all the attendant consequences for the governance of our country and it’s capacity to address it’s deep-rooted socio-economic challenges and inequities.
In addition, I believe the campaign should focus on the fact that many of the issues facing large swathes of the UK electorate (e.g. the increasingly pervasive global challenges in an ever more uncertain world) are common to all the Member States and can best be tackled when working together rather than Britain seeking to go it alone with all the attendant loss of power and influence.
As I see it, a further potentially important “selling point” in the campaign is the acknowledgement that fundamental EU reform is required if the Bloc is to face up to its growing challenges including the need to better respond to the socio-economic and security related needs of it’s citizens – with all the historic mix of diplomatic skills and pragmatism at its disposal, Britain is perfectly placed to play a key counter-balancing role as the EU embarks on its crucial reform agenda.
Denis Kennedy